Physician resource structure in Lithuania and their distribution is unequal and rigid to change. It is necessary to form consistent policy of undergraduate and postgraduate physician training as well as policy of solving geographic maldistribution; a shortage of physicians was observed not only in rural areas, but also in some remote municipalities, in addition, 15% of physicians were more than 60 years old.

Large percentage (17.3%) of enrolled students dropped out from the undergraduate medical studies at Kaunas University of Medicine. A substantial percentage of Kaunas University of Medicine medical graduates were not licensed and even larger percentage was not practicing medicine; the annual drop out rate from the profession was 0.57%. The migration survey indicated that 60.7% of medical residents and 26.8% of physicians intended to leave for the EU or other countries. However, this was a definitive decision of 3.5% of physicians and 2.5% of medical residents. The main reasons for migration was higher salary, better professional opportunities and better quality of life; the first-choice countries were the Nordic countries, United Kingdom and Germany. For medical residents a previous visit abroad for professional reasons increased the risk of going to work abroad significantly (OR – 3.29, 95% CI 1.73-6.27). In the case of physicians, age was the factor that significantly decreased the risk (OR - 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96); however having friends abroad increased the risk by more than three times (OR – 3.22, 95% CI 1.91-5.42).

The long physician training cycle, significantly reduced enrollments to the Medical Faculties, high student drop out rate from medical studies, the large number of non-licensed and non-practicing medical graduates, the large percentage of female physicians, and the large number of physicians who have reached retirement age lead to the conclusion that the number of physicians in Lithuania will decrease in the next 15 years, going below the target number of physician planning agreed upon in Delphi study. In addition, the first ever survey of medical residents and physicians in Lithuania on their intentions for leaving abroad indicates that the impact on physicians in Lithuania after accession to the European Union and the introduction of its free-movement policy will be tangible. The immigration of physicians from other EU countries is unlikely, with a more likely source of physicians being from less developed Eastern European and former Soviet countries, although the numbers and the impact are not clear at this point.